San Diego For Sale By Owner

San Diego Home Value Forecast 2012

2012-01-07T05:57:00.000-08:00

San Diego Home Forecast 2012

http://www.sandiegorealestatelibrary.info
San Diego real estate 2012 Outlook - San Diego Home Value Forecast 2012 - Opinion on the 2012 San Diego real estate outlook. Bob Schwartz is a San Diego real estate broker with 30+ years experience. If you own a San Diego home or are planning purchasing San Diego real estate, Bob's San Diego 2012 real estate outlook is a must read. View the full post at: San Diego homes for sale
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San Diego California Real Estate 2011

2011-10-01T07:50:00.000-07:00

San Diego Home Forecast 2011 - Opinion on the 2011 San Diego real estate outlook. Why San Diego home short sales, foreclosures will still have an impact on the San Diego homes for sale market in 2011. brokerforyou.com Bob Schwartz is a San Diego real estate broker with 30+ years experience. If you own a San Diego home or are planning purchasing San Diego real estate Bob's San Diego 2011 real estate outlook is a must read. View the full post at:
San Diego housing outlook

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California real estate license #00706331

2011 San Diego Housing Market Outlook

2011-01-11T23:45:00.000-08:00

San Diego 2011 -Year of the Short Sale

We meet again at the start of a new year and a refreshed outlook on the San Diego real estate market. I am not certain that the phrases I see attributed to the upcoming year in San Diego real estate are all that fresh, though. Don’t these sound familiar:
• With interest rates near all-time lows, buying now is a no-brainer,
• Get in now, before the huge pent-up demand for homes hits,
• Solid signs of a firming market,
• Act fast now, or you may be paying thousands more in a few months,
• What a great time to buy with low interest rates and a good supply of homes for sale.

The phrases are far from new or fresh; we heard them in 2005. The major difference was that in 2005 and 2006 many of the Gurus were adding phrases:
• It’s only a normal pull-back,
• It’s known as a ‘pause to refresh’,
• This is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity before the market resumes it’s double digit yearly appreciation.

Amazingly in San Diego, California, is the local media talking-heads still go back to the same industry spokespeople to get their 60 second optimistic new year outlook for the 6:00PM news.

Naturally, I’d like to join this optimistic, self-promoting crowd, but sorry, I have to tell it like I see it.

The title of this article says it all. After the $8,000, Federal and California home buyer credits expired, the local San Diego real estate market entered into a double-dip continued erosion of home values.

After the homebuyer credits concluded, San Diego home values saw modest price appreciation. Now even this modest appreciation has disappeared. Even more troubling is that the resale home sales volume has been dropping at double digit rates for the last few months. Just from April to May the western states sales dropped a reported 20.9%. Huge double-digit declines in home sales are a major red flag that cannot be ignored.

When will the government learn that you cannot artificially create lasting demand? (Statistics show the vast majority of government housing programs, costing billions, are outright failures and have only prolonged our malaise.) I believe the best thing the government can do is to stay out of the housing market and let the open market clean up the mess.

Think about this: Bernanke initially spent almost $2 trillion to drive long-term interest rates down.

The $600 billion QE2 has no effect to date. Actually, interest rates have moved up substantially. There are a few months left, but I am sure Bernanke will use the "it would have been much worse" argument and declare success. The reality is that there will be no QE3, not with Ron Paul now as the watchdog of the Fed.

Our aging population, combined with a decreased standard of living can't equate to housing starts comparable to prior generations. I think our government’s relentless destruction of the middle class is making this different from prior real estate cycles.

Foreclosure moratoriums are beginning to expire. I believe the banks will push to clean up their portfolios through increased foreclosures.

Except for cash buyers, home pricing is derived from the affordability of the monthly payment. Should interest rates and taxes go up (a good bet), the purchase price will have to come down to establish a market. Construction labor is already about as cheap as you can get it and inflation for materials is already present. This spells very bad news for homebuilders.

As far as pent-up buyer demand goes, the gurus again have it backwards. It’s not buyer pent-up demand, but seller pent-up demand to unload their homes.

The depth and longevity of this San Diego housing value depression has been imbedded into the consciousness of the usual first wave of home buyers in their late 20’s and early 30’s. The high cost of living in San Diego has been further stressed with continued multiple raises in utilities, increased state taxes/fees, higher education costs and $3.00+ per gallon gas prices. This all equates to over-priced homes in the current world of qualifying for a home mortgage.

I just believe there are major problems with our economy at play that we have never seen before and that will have a deciding call on what happens with housing. I see demand based on finance rather than population at this point.

During the mid 2000's, almost the entire mortgage universe had been refinanced. This included many baby boomers that were in the last half of the 30-year mortgage they took out when they purchased their home. Some of this was hopefully to pay down other expenses and not to maintain their fantasy of the luxury lifestyle. The refinancing bubble that resulted from the irresponsible actions of Greenspan reset the 30-year mortgage clock. All borrowers looked at, was how the refinance lowered their house payment by $X per month, without giving a second thought to the fact that they have also extended the term to a new 30-year loan.

Another round of refinancing occurred when Bernanke pushed rates down to the 4% range. The only borrowers left who have not refinanced are those with no equity and/or are facing foreclosure.

In either case, now many Boomers who are reaching the traditional retirement age, find themselves strapped with 20+ years left on their refinanced mortgages. Instead of preparing for the mortgage burning party that their parents had when that generation retired, they are wondering how they can make house payments on a lower income during retirement.

Since this is the first year of the boomers reaching 65, it is going to be a negative drag on housing for years to come.

For the San Diego and California real estate market we have to contend with our own Cap & Tax laws going into effect in 2011 that will increase utility costs by 20% over the next five and speeding up the loss of manufacturing jobs. We also have a new, old governor who was against proposition 13 which sets a maximum cap on property taxes and will likely propose new massive state taxes to deal with a $25.4 billion budget deficit.

I will end my prediction with a challenge. I have 30+ years in residential real estate, I accurately foretold the 2005 bubble burst, and despite wanting to be wrong with previous “low” opinions I usually haven’t been. Do you want to bet against me?

My San Diego California real estate site provides full, unrestricted access to search the entire San Diego MLS . Also, if you want to see the actual current San Diego real estate sales activity and actual closed home prices, please visit San Diego home sales. San Diego real estate home market blog

San Diego California real estate agents

brokerforyou Bob Schwartz

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Was There A Real Estate Recovery?

2010-08-20T08:12:00.000-07:00

San Diego California real estate market:

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California real estate recovery still years off

2008-02-24T22:02:00.000-08:00

According to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. report released last week, California home prices and sales volumes will also slide into 2009, while some areas of the state experience an even more prolonged downturn.

Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp, said:
"The housing pains there will remain, probably until 2010."
The statewide median home price last month was down about 17 percent from a year earlier and 5 percent from December, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The statewide median price peaked last spring.
In San Diego, most insiders will agree that the top of the housing market was the summer of 2005.
Century 21 San Diego Realtor

Stimulus Package ready for President

2008-02-07T23:05:00.000-08:00

Stimulus Package on Way To Present

The Senate passed their version of an economic stimulus package today, Thursday, February 07, 2008. The Senate version expands rebate checks for seniors and disabled veterans and includes the same increases to the conforming loan limits for both GSE and FHA found in the House stimulus package. The House just passed the Senate version of the bill and it will now be sent to the White House. The President is expected to sign the legislation by the end of next week, ahead of the Congressional self-appointed deadline of February 15^th. The increase in the conforming loan limits will last through 2008, but C.A.R. and NAR continue to lobby for FHA and GSE reform, making these increases permanent.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a stimulus package last week that raised the FHA and conforming loan limits to as high as $729,750 in high-cost areas. By increasing the loan limits, borrowers will see immediate relief with new liquidity in the mortgage market and the nation will see an additional 300,000 home sales. Research shows that an increase in the FHA limit would enable an additional 138,000 Americans to purchase homes, and 200,000 families to refinance their homes safely and affordably.

Increasing the FHA loan limits is critical to bolstering California’s housing market. Current law restricts FHA loans to levels well below the median home price in many areas of the country and caps loans in high cost states at $363,790. These limits are preventing many homebuyers from using FHA to purchase or refinance their loan. The proposed provision will increase FHA loan limits nationwide by raising the floor to $271,050 and the limit to 125% of local median home prices.

Additionally, raising Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s (GSEs) conforming loan limit will provide immediate relief to borrowers and alleviate downward pressure on current housing markets. For instance, increasing the GSE loan limit could result in more than 300,000 additional home sales and strengthen current home prices by 2-3%.

The critical role that GSEs play in providing liquidity to the mortgage market has never been more evident than it is today. The national subprime meltdown has had a dramatic impact on both the cost and availability of mortgages in many markets. Since August 2007, the interest rates for jumbo borrowers have been more than 1 percentage point higher than conforming loans, which can cost homeowners up to $400 month in higher interest payments. San Diego California real estate

Mortgage Industry Layoffs

2007-09-14T00:24:00.000-07:00

IndyMac Bancorp (the second-biggest mortgage company), National City Corp. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. have been cutting staff. At least 100 mortgage companies have sought buyers or halted lending since the start of 2006, and foreclosures in the second quarter rose to a record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington.

Adding to this already dire situation is the fact that mortgage defaults have started moving beyond the sub-prime sector: The Mortgage Bankers Assn. noted a rise in foreclosures on supposedly high-quality prime loans that were used by speculators who put little money down on houses in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, and now are walking away due to lower home prices.

California foreclosures skyrocket!

2007-08-01T08:29:00.000-07:00

Foreclosures hit 17,408 for the three months ended June 30, for an increase of 799 percent from the same period in 2006. These foreclosure numbers well exceed the prior 1996 high.

Rich Toscano, with Pacific Capital Associates in San Diego said: "There will be individual pain for people who made the wrong decisions. We all may end up in a recession."

Downtown San Diego condos

San Diego Home Sales Figures – Not All That They Seem

2007-07-10T08:02:00.000-07:00

San Diego Home Sales Figures – Not
All That They Seem

By Bob Schwartz
brokerforyou.com ©2007 all rights reserved.

This material is subject to copyright and any unauthorized use,
copying or mirroring is prohibited

Reviewing the recently released real estate
sales data for San Diego, the lay person might conclude that the June home
appreciation figures were down approximately 1% as compared to June 2005. The
reality is the decline is probably much closer to three or five times the
published figures!

The reasons for this are really quite apparent when one considers the following
facts:

1. The appreciation figures cited are the MEDIAN sales prices. The upper-end,
luxury home market has been extremely strong in Southern California and is
relatively immune to increasing interest rates. It operates totally apart from
the rest of the real estate market. The sales of these upper-end luxury estates
skew the MEDIAN appreciation sales data.

A far more accurate figure would be the AVERAGE sales price. Alternatively, data
should exclude, or make million dollar plus sales a separate category.

2. The reported sales data does NOT take into consideration incentives used by
not only major builders, but, in today’s market, by the majority of San Diego
home sellers, to entice scarce buyers to purchase their properties.

Just open up the Sunday real estate section of your local paper and the
magnitude of these incentives becomes quite apparent. Just a few incentives I
noted in my July 23, 2006 paper: $15,000 closing cost credit and $25,000 towards
an interest rate buy down or upgrades; $50K to help pay your mortgage; seller
pays interest portion of your new loan payment for first 6 months, all
non-recurring closing costs, plus 12 months of HOA fees. I could go on, but, you
must understand that the builders are not being altruistic. No, they just want
to move standing inventory, and move it now before any further declines!

While on the subject of builder incentives, it was just a little over a year ago
that the majority of builders were not even co-operating with real estate
agents. Now, the builder/agent cooperation has gone 180 degrees plus! Typically,
builders offer two or 2.5% co-op commissions. Now,

San Diego agents are being invited to catered
brunches and offered co-op commissions up to 5%, as advertised in the July 23,
2006, Union-Tribune!

The purchase incentive phenomenon is not by any means the exclusive domain of
new

San Diego homes. Actually, I would say the
majority of individual homeowners are also being forced into the incentive game.
Though not many are offering incentives from the start of their marketing, after
six to eight weeks on the market the idea becomes more appealing. Even without
offering any incentives, the majority of offers are now being presented with
buyer incentives built-in as a condition of sale!

A year ago one would be hard pressed to find any individual San Diego home
sellers or major new home builder offering incentives. Now, it is just these
incentives that also skew the appreciation data. A $500,000 home sale with a
$25,000 interest rate buy-down/closing costs package incentive will be recorded
as a $500,000 sale. Yet, the $500,000 sale, in reality was only $475,000 or 5%
BELOW the reported sales data!

So if the $500,000 sale was just 1% below the June 2005 median appreciation, you
can see that the ‘real’ difference was 6% below last year!

Other factors not being mentioned in the press that are important to our market
direction are:

Typically the period from late March through September is the strongest for
San Diego real estate sales. What does both a
huge and continuing month over month sales decline and now a home appreciation
drop, during this ‘hot’ time, portend for the market as it enters the weaker
Fall/Winter period? Lastly, the bulk of the interest only, 100% loans used to
prop up our market for the last few years, has two or three year time periods
until the re-amortization (at the current prevailing interest rates) of the loan
balances. The majority of these interest rate adjustments will occur in 2007 and
2008.

In my opinion, this is no ‘return to normal’ or ‘slight correction’ to the San
Diego real estate market. By year’s end there will be no denying we will
experience a double digit appreciation decline. A decline that will take years,
not months, to work itself out.

*Note -This material is subject to copyright and any unauthorized use, copying
or mirroring is prohibited

About the Author:
Bob Schwartz is a Certified Residential Specialist, San Diego real estate broker
with http://www.Brokerforyou.com in
San Diego Ca. & co-owner of
www.websitetrafficbuilders.com specializing in domain name registration &
Internet domain website hosting. Bob’s San Diego real estate blog is:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou

33,933 Real Estate Visitors in June 2007

2007-07-04T09:23:00.000-07:00

With 33,933 unique visitors in June 2007, www.brokerforyou.com
is the un-challenged Top San Diego real estate website!

Who's most at risk for foreclosure?

2007-06-11T05:52:00.000-07:00

Who's most at risk for foreclosure? - Buying a House - MSN Real Estate: "Who's most at risk for foreclosure?

There's a flood of foreclosures coming -- about 1.1 million of them, a new study estimates. Here are the borrowers who are most likely to lose their homes.
By Holden Lewis, Bankrate.com
© Comstock Select/Corbis

You have a 1-in-3 chance of losing your house to foreclosure if you got an adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, in 2004 through 2006 that had an initial teaser rate of less than 4%.

If you got a subprime ARM in that period, you started out with a higher rate, and that puts you at less risk. You have a 1-in-8 chance of losing your home." San Diego for sale by owner

San Diego real estate market direction

2007-04-01T22:06:00.000-07:00

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N.J. housing is priciest Median costs highest in nation

2006-10-05T19:51:00.000-07:00

After a six-year run-up in housing prices, many households in New Jersey are staggering under heavy monthly shelter costs, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. Among mortgage holders, New Jerseyans in 2005 paid the highest median housing costs in the nation $1,938 a month, including mortgage payments, property taxes, home insurance, condo fees and utilities.
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BUILDER CONFIDENCE DECLINES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 1991

2006-09-21T09:33:00.000-07:00

The confidence level of the nation's home builders declined for the eighth consecutive month in September, a reflection of increased sales cancellations and rising inventories of unsold homes, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 30 this month, down three points from August and down 35 points from a year ago. In the West, the HMI has steadily declined since April and now stands at 38. An HMI below 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as poor versus good. Newer sites: San Diego hotels - San Diego lasik

National Realtors Assoc. - Home Prices to Fall!

2006-09-18T10:58:00.000-07:00

September 18, 2006—Housing prices are expected to continue to have a limited fall throughout 2006, according to testimony submitted by the National Association of Realtors at today’s Senate Banking Committee.
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Housing Starts Drop 5.3 Percent in June

2006-07-27T23:32:00.000-07:00

Housing Starts Drop 5.3 Percent in June
(Washington - July 19, 2006) - Total housing starts dropped 5.3 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.850 million units, according to figures released by the Commerce Department today. This was 11.0 percent below the pace of a year ago.
Single-family housing starts were down 6.5 percent for the month to a pace of 1.486 million units, a 13.8 percent drop from the June 2005 pace. Multifamily housing construction was up 0.3 percent for the month to a seasonally adjusted pace of 364,000 units.
'NAHB's surveys of single-family builders have been showing a steady decline in confidence since the middle of last year, and builders are acting accordingly. They are slowing their production as market conditions and demand cool down,' said David Pressly, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Statesville, N.C. "

Home prices could start falling

2006-07-26T07:49:00.000-07:00

USATODAY.com - Home prices could start falling: "Home prices could start falling

By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday after a report showed that sales of existing homes fell in June and the number of homes for sale soared to their highest point since 1997.

Condo prices are already being hit: They fell 2.1% from June last year to a median $226,900 (median means half cost less and half cost more). Prices of single-family homes edged up 1.1% in June to $231,500. With a 6.8-month supply of single-family homes on the market and an eight-month supply of condos, sellers are under more pressure to cut prices, and buyers can be choosy.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expects 'price numbers to start deteriorating,' though he still projects home prices will be up 5.3% for the year. "

San Diego Home Prices Fall!

2006-07-13T17:03:00.000-07:00

For June '06, the median home price in San Diego fell for the first time in nearly a decade and sales tumbled in Los Angeles County, according to just released real estate figures.

The median price of all homes sold in San Diego last month fell 1% from the same month last year to $488,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

The importance of this, is that the traditionally strongest real estate marketing time is from May through August. For a price drop to occur now,
can only be a harbinger of a much more pronounced drop as we enter into Fall/Winter.

I'm not selling my San Diego home, but have sold all my investment properties.

If one considers the BILLIONS in adjustable loans due for their first adjustment in 2007/8 combined with the huge percentage of 100%loans used to purchase at the height of our market....you have to worry!

But, than again what is so bad about a 20-30% decline in values if we are coming off 100% increase over the last five years?

I'll answer my own question....nothing so bad as long as you were not speculating, purchased beyond your means or refinanced you property at 90% or more of its high value.
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San Diego County home prices take a tumble

2006-07-03T05:50:00.000-07:00

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Business -- San Diego County home prices take a tumble: "By Roger M. Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
11:45 a.m. June 13, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County's home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.
Snapshot: Home/condo sales May '05– May '06

Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis, reaching 4,217 transactions in new and existing homes and condos.
Local real estate agents reported about seven months' worth of unsold inventory, but argued that the pace of activity reflects a normal market rather than a crash. "

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch

2006-06-29T07:49:00.000-07:00

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch: "Growing evidence of real-estate 'bust'
Fallout for consumers and corporate profits, eonomist says
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:47 AM ET Jun 29, 2006

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Evidence is mounting that the global property cycle is turning down, as rising interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures combine to put the brakes on demand for real estate, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
The shift ushers in an end to what's been a six-year rally during which the twin forces of globalization and financial innovation fed an upturn in the property cycle that became a worldwide phenomenon, said economist Andy Xie, in an Asia Pacific strategy report released Thursday.
'Due to deflation shocks, global inflation has been low, which allowed major central banks to keep interest rates very low, in turn fueling property,' Xie said. 'As inflation picks up simultaneously around the world, interest rates are rising everywhere, and the property boom is turning into a bust.' "

Interest Rate Up - Equity Down!

2006-06-24T12:53:00.000-07:00

Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future? - NationalRealtyNews.com: "Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future?
Thursday, June 22, 2006 - By Staff Writer, National Realty News

STUART, FL - Many borrowers who mortgaged their homes with adjustable rate mortgages while rates were at historic lows will soon be in store for a payment shock and the economy overall will certainly feel the effects. Some experts say prepare for a rise in delinquency rates and foreclosures.

Bankrate.com reports that over the next 18 months, more than $1 trillion of adjustable-rate mortgages will be hitting their first reset date. Assuming the average loan amount is $200,000, that amounts to 500,000 mortgages. The typical homeowner will be forced to seriously readjust their monthly budget when they go from paying on an interest only loan or a loan with a low starting rate to one that now requires playing catch up on the principal. Many borrowers will simply not be prepared for a sudden change that may require them to pay double more than they paid the previous month for their mortgage. Industry experts say this will fuel another year of increases in mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures.

The effects will be evident in the economy overall, as well. That consumer who is suddenly paying more for their mortgage - and who is already feeling the heat due to high fuel prices - is most likely forced to cut back on spending money elsewhere - especially for consumer products and services. "
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BUILDER CONFIDENCE Takes a BIG Drop

2006-06-22T06:50:00.000-07:00

The confidence level of the nation's home builders continues to decline in 2006, falling this month to its lowest reading since April 1995, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 42, down four points from May's revised reading of 46. An HMI above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good versus poor. According to NAHB, declining demand from investors, rising mortgage interest rates, and continued affordability issues all contributed to the decrease in builders' outlook for the new home market.

All three HMI components declined in June. The component measuring sales expectations declined five points to 50, while the components gauging current single-family sales and buyer traffic decreased to 47 and 29, respectively. Home builder confidence edged down across the nation in June, and in the West builder confidence declined one point to a seasonally adjusted HMI of 61.
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Smart money is leaving the real estate market

2006-06-21T07:48:00.000-07:00

Rockford's Newspaper Rock River Times | rockford illinois news information: "Dr. Christopher Thornberg, a member of the forecast staff, told a blog called The Housing Panic: “Actually, what we are seeing is a very typical slowdown in the market so far—there is nothing particularly soft about it (the landing in bubble markets). The claim is that because unit sales are falling but prices are still going up, that this is an unusual slowing. The fact is that most breaking markets start with activity, and it takes three to four quarters for that to take all the wind out of price appreciation. How hard it will be, remains to be seen.”"
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Southern California Forclosures move UP!

2006-06-20T08:20:00.000-07:00

Foreclosures Continue to Rise in Southern California, Says Default Research: "Real estate bubble continues to deflate in Southern California, expert says

RISMEDIA, June 20, 2006—The number of foreclosures escalated throughout Southern California, with a rise of 29.09% since January 2006, according to Default Research (www.defaultresearch.com), the rapidly growing real estate research company for foreclosure properties.

While Riverside had the highest increase of 56.45%, San Diego County had an increase of 49%, followed by Los Angeles up 16.2%.
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Rates moving higher!

2006-06-15T08:12:00.000-07:00

Inflation Outlook Likely to Push Rates Still Higher
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - By Staff Writer, The Originator Times
Click to Review

STUART, FL – Mortgage professionals everywhere have been wondering if interest rates will continue to rise and whether the Fed will hike short-term rates for the 17th consecutive time on June 29.
Looking at this week’s key economic briefings and results, all signs points to yes. The Fed will likely increase short-term rates by a quarter of a point. Anticipating this action, the bond market is apt to similarly push long-term mortgage rates higher. "
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Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news

2006-06-03T15:06:00.000-07:00

Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news: "Some economists -- typically, those who have staked their professional reputations on being dark-horse skeptics -- are predicting nothing short of a global economic apocalypse. Others -- often those on the take from the real estate industry -- scoff at such dire visions. Don't listen to the doomsayers, they say, 'we're in for a soft landing.'
But how these perspectives affect the average gal with a mortgage or the ordinary dude with a dream of buying his own house is anything but clear. So who do you listen to, and what does it all mean?
On a basic level, the real estate experts can't really quibble about the basic facts: Many once-hot markets are showing signs of a cold front this summer. The Federal Reserve Board is expected to raise interest rates again to ward off inflation, and banks have begun to curb their promiscuous dispensing of risky, low-down loans. These factors will contribute to making real estate less appealing to many investors. Sure, people still need to live in houses, but the people who need to pour extra dollars somewhere may take a breather from speculative acrobatics to search for other investment circuses. (Can you say 'oil futures' three times fast?) "
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Housing Cools Down

2006-05-21T08:23:00.000-07:00

Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief Says: "Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief SaysBy Tomoeh Murakami TseWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, May 19, 2006; Page D01Confirming what home buyers suspected and real estate sales figures have indicated for months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. housing market was showing clear signs of cooling off.Bernanke said the slowdown is 'moderate' and 'orderly' and pointed to the overall strength of the economy

Economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy and Research expressed concern that rising interest rates were squeezing homeowners who took out interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages. Even when interest rates were at historically low levels, Baker said, stretched buyers were taking out exotic loans to get into pricey homes.

Baker said a rising inventory of homes in the Washington region could fuel a double-digit price decline if interest rates climb higher. Condo prices could fall by as much as 30 percent, and prices of single-family homes could drop by as much as 15 percent, he said.
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Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low

2006-05-21T08:05:00.000-07:00

Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low: "Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low
By Eve Mitchell, BUSINESS WRITER

Sundays — the days when many real estate professionals set up open houses — have been a lot quieter lately for Daniel Joe, a Redwood City-based Realtor.
Call it one of the hidden signs of the slowing real estate market, which last month saw the lowest level of Bay Area home sales in five years, according to a report Thursday from DataQuick Information Systems. It started last spring, when sales dropped off as the number of homes on the market began to rise and so did interest rates. Now sales are sliding, interest rates are even higher and prices are increasing at a lower rate.
When the housing market was hot, so was attendance by prospective buyers at open houses. Not so in today's cooling market.
'I don't see a whole bunch of people walking through the properties all at one time,' said Joe, who works at Realty World Hirsch & Associates in Redwood
City.
The Bay Area median price did reach a new record in April, DataQuick said. But the new peak of $628,000 is not that much to get excited about, given that sales volume dropped 25.1 percent from a year ago.
Some 8,358 new and resale condominiums changed hands in the Bay Area last month — the slowest April since 2001 when 7,193 homes were sold, and a 14.2 percent decline from March. "
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San Diego home sales at Five Year Low!

2006-05-17T10:35:00.000-07:00

May 16, 2006La Jolla,CA----Home sales in Southern California decelerated in April to their slowest pace since 2001, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and less buyer urgency. Prices rose at a single-digit appreciation rate for the first time in more than four years, a real estate information service reported. A total of 24,748 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was down 16.1 percent from 29,509 in March and down 21.3 percent from 31,431 in April last year. The year-over-year sales decline was the steepest since April 1995, when home purchases slowed 24.0 percent. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any April since 24,120 homes were sold in April 2001. DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, show an average April for the nineteen years saw 23,660 sales. "March and April have shown us that the boom phase of this cycle is behind us, so now it's just a question of how the cycle ends. Right now it looks like changes in the real estate market are happening gradually. But there's a lot of uncertainty among analysts regarding the effect of higher interest rates and how fast the economy is generating demand in regional markets," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

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Foreclosures Jump 60% in San Diego

2006-05-02T21:59:00.000-07:00

First-quarter foreclosure activity in the state jumped to its highest level in two years, including a nearly 60 percent rise in San Diego County, a real estate information service reported Tuesday. "A number of factors are driving defaults higher," said Marshall Prentice, president of La Jolla-based DataQuick. "The main one right now is that home values are rising more slowly than they have been the past couple of years, which makes it more difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and pay off the lender." According to DataQuick, lenders sent 18,668 default notices to California homeowners in the first three months of the year. That's a 23.4 percent increase over the previous quarter and a 28.7 percent jump over the same period last year. In San Diego County, lenders sent 1,533 default notices in the first quarter, a 59.7 percent jump over the same quarter of 2005, when 960 notices were sent.
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San Diego Home Sales DOWN!

2006-04-19T09:43:00.000-07:00

For March 2006, The number of homes sold continued to drop across Southern California -- with the exception of Riverside County, which saw a 6 percent increase in home sales.

In San Diego County, there were 4,146 home sales last month. That represents a 17.4 percent drop from the 5,018 sales in March 2005.Across Southern California -- including Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- there were 29,509 home sales last month, down 9.7 percent from March 2005, when 32,674 homes were sold.

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Housing Market Turns!

2006-04-14T10:59:00.000-07:00

Red-Hot Housing Markets Cooling Down(April 12, 2006) -- Housing that last year was selling in a matter of hours — Florida coastline condos, townhouses in Washington, D.C., and desert haciendas in Arizona — are now languishing on the market.Home sales have declined 20 percent in Florida, according to the Florida Association of REALTORS®. And in California, sales dropped 15 percent. Sales were off by 19 percent in Washington. D.C., and down 25 percent around Phoenix. Experts blame a number of factors, including a sell-off among investors, worsening affordability due to soaring property prices and rising interest rates. In Florida, last year’s active hurricane season discouraged some buyers.But economists note that while sales in some markets are weaker, they aren't collapsing — just settling into a normal market pace. Inventories are rising but not to an alarming level, and demand for homes is actually posting gains in cities where prices are still considered bargains, such as Indianapolis and Houston.Source: The Wall Street Journal, by Michael Corkery (04/12/06)

30Yr. Mtg. Rates Moves Higher

2006-04-13T22:58:00.000-07:00

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market SurveySM in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending April 13, 2006, up from last week’s average of 6.43 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.91 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been higher since the week ending July 12, 2002, when it averaged 6.54 percent.The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 6.14 percent, with an average 0.5 point, up from last week’s average of 6.10 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.46 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been higher since the week ending June 13, 2002, when it averaged 6.17 percent.

Buying a House - MSN Real Estate

2006-04-13T11:39:00.000-07:00

Buying a House - MSN Real Estate: "Los Angeles: The City of Angels has been described as the poster child for how a lack of new housing near employment centers can hurt an economy. Affordable housing has been an issue in the market for years. It's ranked as one of the least affordable places in the country to live, with housing prices consuming 91% of income, according to statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The median price of an existing single-family home was $568,000 at the end of 2005, the National Association of Realtors reports. Plus, job growth is virtually flat. Together, it's cause for real estate market consultant Gollis to predict that the prices for California coastal markets are topping out in single-family homes. Fortune predicts a drop-off of nearly 8% in housing prices in the next two years, putting it in 95th out of 100 markets for growth. "

Application Volume Drops - OriginatorTimes.com

2006-04-12T13:51:00.000-07:00

Application Volume Drops - OriginatorTimes.com: "WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Mortgage Bankers Association released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 7. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 579.4, a decrease of 5.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 612.8 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5.1 percent compared with the previous week and was down 14.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 4.7 percent to 417.7 from 438.2 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 6.6 percent to 1532.4 from 1640.8 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 5.0 percent to 854.9 from 900.3 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 10.2 percent to 120.0 from 133.6 the previous week."

Rising inventory of unsold homes points to a cooling of the market

2006-04-10T23:34:00.000-07:00

Rising inventory of unsold homes points to a cooling of the market: "
Kathleen Pender
Sunday, April 9, 2006

In another sign that the real estate market is cooling -- but not collapsing -- the inventory of unsold homes in California is roughly double what it was a year ago.
Inventory is calculated by dividing the number of homes for sale in a region by the number of homes that have closed escrow in the past month. It tells you how many months it would take hypothetically to sell all the homes on the market.
Statewide, the inventory of unsold single-family homes in February was 6.7 months, up from 3.2 months in February of last year.

'For the better part of 2005, it was in the 3- to 3.5-month range,' says Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist with the California Association of Realtors. 'We saw a rather dramatic increase at the state level beginning in January of this year and continuing in February.'

Inventories are generally higher in Southern than in Northern California. "

Home Mortgage Jump

2006-04-07T10:59:00.000-07:00

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.43 percent from 6.35 percent during the week ended April 6, according to Freddie Mac.Interest on 15-year fixed loans edged up to 6.10 percent from 6 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the one-year adjustable mortgage rate rose to 5.57 percent from 5.51 percent; and the five-year hybrid ARM surged to 6.11 percent from 6.02 percent. Source: The Wall Street Journal (04/07/06)

lenders believe a housing bubble

2006-04-05T00:23:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--About two-thirds of lenders believe a housing bubble exists in the U.S., and half think it has begun to burst or will blow up in the next six months, according to a new survey.A Phoenix Management report, released Tuesday, found 66% of the 92 lenders who took part in the survey believe the country is currently in a housing bubble, up from 46% a year ago."In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from Loch Ness monster myth status to an economic reality that could have a significant economic impact on the lives of many Americans," said Michael Jacoby, managing director and shareholder of Phoenix Management, an advisory firm that provides turnaround, crisis and interim management and investment banking services.When asked when the bubble might burst, 77% said they believed it would happen within the next 12 months: 30% believe the bubble is already starting to blow up, 20% predict it will happen in the next one to six months, and 27% forecast it in seven to 12 months.If a housing correction occurs, 50% of respondents said they believe prices would decline up to 10%, 43% expect a 20% price decline, and 7% see prices falling up to 30%.The survey found 30% of lenders believe the Northeast region would be hit hardest by a housing correction while 27% believe the West would be affected most.

Housing Bubble Trouble - CBS News

2006-04-03T23:11:00.000-07:00

Housing Bubble Trouble - CBS News: "'If something can't go on forever, it won't.'
Herb Stein

With new home sales down 10.5 percent in February, and with home prices declining for the fourth month in a row, it's high time for a sober look at the consequences of a major housing correction. The Federal Reserve, Wall Street economists, and other observers of the U.S. economy are closely watching the housing market because it has been a key driver of economic growth over the past several years.

Roughly a quarter of the jobs created since the 2001 recession have been in construction, real estate, and mortgage finance. Even more important, consumers have withdrawn $2.5 trillion in equity from their homes during this time, spending as much as half of it and thus making a huge contribution to the growth the U.S. economy has enjoyed in recent years (consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP).

But consumers cannot keep spending more than they make. Eventually, home prices will flatten, the flood of 'cash out' refinancings will become a trickle, and consumer spending will slow, as will job creation in housing-related industries. The big question is this: Will the housing sector experience a soft landing and slow the economy or a hard landing that pushes us into recession? "

Stocks jump on new home sales decline -- MSN Money

2006-03-24T11:35:00.000-08:00

Stocks jump on new home sales decline -- MSN Money: "New home sales fell 10% from January to February -- and 13.4% from February 2005 -- to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.08 million units. The median price of a new home fell to $230,400 from $234,200 and was down for a fifth straight month.
All of the monthly change came in two regions of the country:
The West , down 29.4% from January and 27.8% from February 2005. This region extends from Colorado to the Hawaii and Alaska. California's huge market dominates the statistics, and the drop may mean many buyers are balking at the prices.
The South, down 6.4% from January and nearly 10% from February 2005. The Commerce Department defines the South as a broad arc of states from Delaware to Florida on the East Coast across to Texas and Oklahoma."

Real Estate Double Digit Decline in Values!

2006-03-22T09:00:00.000-08:00

A preview for the Hot US real estate markets??

Shanghai’s housing market into double digit decline!

The LA Times ran a story on March 4th.on the bust of the Shanghai, China, real estate market.

In one of the world’s hottest housing markets, the last three years saw a doubling of prices. Things are now so bad now that thousands of real estate offices have closed, many homeowners have loan amounts that are greater than their properties resale value, recent buyers are fighting with developers to rescind their purchases, and banks are awaiting a wave of mortgage defaults.
Morgan Stanley's chief Asia economist said “Shanghai's housing slump is only going to worsen and imperil a significant part of the Chinese economy”. About the property now under construction, this same economist said "They'll remain empty for years!”

The similarities to our hot US bubble markets, makes me believe this is preview of what we are already starting to experience (though at a much slower pace).
The first signs of trouble in our real estate markets were very subtle and only picked up, or acknowledged, by very few real estate (http://www.brokerforyou.com/blogger/index.html ) professionals. Since mid 2005 the red flags have been quite obvious to even the layperson. Yet, the forever optimistic ‘it’s always a good time to buy’ industry line is embraced by the mass media (they certainly do not want to lose their immense source of real estate advertising revenue) and the naive general public.

In San Diego in particular and most other major metropolitan real estate markets, it’s quite acceptable to acknowledge and embrace the double digit real estate appreciation of the past. Yet, even the thought of depreciation of real estate is looked on with the same disbelief and distain as if a child molester moved in next door.

There is a proven saying in our stock market: “You can never go broke taking a profit.” In many US markets, seasoned investors can still turn a profit. However, if Shanghai’s real estate market is any indication of what awaits the hot US markets…..the window of opportunity is closing very fast!

AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com

Home Buliders Report - New Home February Sales Fall

2006-03-14T06:15:00.000-08:00

The National Association of Home Builders reported at the end of February that "sales of new single-family homes fell 5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.233 million units in January following upward revisions to the November and December rates.The January sales rate was 3.3 percent above a year ago."

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Mortgage Rates Hit Highs

2006-03-10T09:21:00.000-08:00

Long-term Mortgage Rates Highest Since September 2003

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market SurveySM (PMMSSM) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.37 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending March 9, 2006, up from last week's average of 6.24 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.85 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been higher since September 5, 2003, when it was 6.43 percent. Search the entire San Diego MLS for your ideal home.

San Diego real estate bubble

2006-03-09T19:52:00.000-08:00

San Diego #11 Riskiest Real Estate Market!

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The Big Players - Tell The Truth - Risky Real Estate

2006-03-07T10:58:00.000-08:00

Countrywide Mortgage CEO Angelo Mozilo believes that the "housing market officially turned south in January," according to Banc Investment Daily, and that some overheated markets may see prices plunge by up to 40 percent. Mozilo mentioned Las Vegas as one of those risky markets.
PLUSThe Associated Press reported .... “The five-year housing boom is indeed over, judging from growing statistical evidence and the performance of some of the nation’s leading builders, and the slowdown is already rippling through the economy. Explanations for the recent cooling-off vary.”Please be sure to visit our Del Mar Encinitas real estate site. Also, a new site we are developing is: San Diego dentist Be sure to have a look.

San Diego real estate investors . . . Facts NOT Opinion!

2006-02-28T15:32:00.000-08:00

San Diego real estate investors . . . ‘Know when to fold them’
By Bob Schwartz, CRS, GRI ©2006 www.brokerforyou.com All rights reserved.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.233 million units last month.

More importantly, this is the second time in three months that housing sales have dropped! This 5 percent drop was under the 7 percent November drop.

Another important fact that this report showed was a 5.2 month supply of new homes in January. This is up 2.5 percent from the December ’05 figures and an astounding 20 percent from the same figures one year ago (January ’05)!

AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com

New Home Buyer are Backing Out!

2006-02-28T14:14:00.000-08:00

Read the excerpt below as another major news organization reports the FACTS! …..
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writerFebruary 24, 2006: 2:49 PM ESTNEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Home builders are growing concerned about an increasing number of cancelled new home orders, which experts say could be a sign of an underlying weakness in the recent run in home prices.
Specifically, the cancelled orders could be the latest warning sign that buyers who were turning to real estate as an investment, rather than for their own housing needs, are shifting out of real estate. And that could mean that in many hot markets, the air is about to come out of over-inflated real home prices overall.

AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com

San Diego Home Sales Plunge!

2006-02-17T11:21:00.000-08:00

Biggest San Diego Home Sales Plunge!

San Diego home sales took the largest drop ever recorded in January 2006! Sales were off 31% from December 2005! This was the lowest monthly sales since January 1998, when these records were first tracked!
From January 2005 the loss was 26.8%, and marked the seventh month in a row where home sales were lower than the year before.

Also, the sales price to list price ratio for single-family homes has also continued to fall.

For well over 18 months now I’ve been predicting a deflation cycle in San Diego. Now as the hard facts are actually showing up the ‘industry’ has changed stragerty from pooh-poohing the coming fall to now predicting a ‘short term softening’ of our market.

Believe what you will, but after a ten year spectular ride up, with the last five years actually doubling most home values, do you really believe the down side will be over in a few months? Our last down cycle in San Diego ran from approximately 1990 to 1995.

My prediction for San Diego real estate is that the downward cycle has only begun. Be sure to fasten your seatbelt.

Pending Home Sales Index Down

2006-02-08T13:06:00.000-08:00

Wednesday, February 01, 2006WASHINGTON,D.C. – Pending home sales continue to according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in December, was down 3.0 percent to a level of 116.4 from 120.0 in November, and is 5.5 percent below December 2004. Pending sales have trended steadily down from a record index of 129.2 last AugustThe index in the West fell 8.1 percent to 117.1 in December and was 11.8 percent lower than a year ago.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker You can contact Bob via e-mail at bob@brokerforyou.com or visit his highly popular San Diego real estate website. -

This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at bob@websitetrafficbuilders.com

San Diego Housing Market Heads South

2006-01-02T11:46:00.000-08:00

San Diego Housing Market Heads South

Bob Schwartz, CRS, GRI ©2005 www.brokerforyou.com All rights reserved.

Nothing down, variable interest rate, EZ qualification, stated income.These are the common lending terms that many believe have kept our super-heated market going. As the stories of fast home appreciation proliferate, the desire to get into our local housing market by those who hesitated in the past, have escalated.This is typical of any bull market, be it the stock or housing market.

The paradigm changes this time. There is a huge increase in zero down and adjustable rate loans being pushed on poor credit risk borrowers and first time buyers (below market start/qualifying), as well as move up buyers being induced to purchase homes that otherwise are far beyond normal qualifying loan guidelines!The majority of the new adjustable loans have artificially low start rates for the first year or two, interest only payment terms, and are indexed to volatile interest rate indexes. This is setting the stage for a huge decline in home values.

One local major lender recently stated that they had no fixed rate purchase loans in process; all their new purchase loans were adjustable! Further, over 50% of their new purchase loans were zero down! Combine this with the popular 'stated income' loans and it's easy to see how these policies have kept our market propped up. (A stated income loan basically means if the buyer has good credit, the amount of their stated income is NOT verified for qualification purposes.)

While a huge housing value decline seems unnatural to many, this phenomenon was last seen locally in the mid-90's! At that time, an approximate 20% housing depreciation took many by surprise. The easy loan practices today, the double digit housing appreciation of the past few years, and irrational enthusiasm, clearly signals another approaching decline in the San Diego housing market!

How bad could such a decline be? A number of local lenders state that the majority of their loans for the past few years were zero down, adjustable loans. With the slow but steady rise in interest rates, San Diego real estate could be facing a decline in housing values that could dim the 20% decline of the mid-90's!By any measure, our local San Diego real estate market is more at risk than any time in recent memory.

Though housing bubbles may last far beyond anyone's expectations, now may well be a time to reconsider any new purchase. Purchasing one's first home is not something one should try to time or tie into projections on the local housing trend. Just be cautious! Stay well within your normal qualification ratios. Except under certain conditions, avoid E/Z qualification and adjustable, zero down loans. Start out modestly with a smaller home or condominium that you can easily afford.

No one can predict the future trend of any major market with certainty. However, caution is advised in San Diego housing as the multitude sing the siren song of never ending double digit housing appreciation.

ABOUT THE AUTHORBob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, CA licensed real estate broker with www.Brokerforyou.com. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego legal firms. You can contact Bob via e-mail at bob@brokerforyou.com or visit his highly popular San Diego real estate website at: http://www.brokerforyou.com

This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at bob@websitetrafficbuilders.com

Tenant 60 notice is out in 2006

2005-10-22T00:00:00.000-07:00

California Tenants - NO MORE 60-DAY NOTICE TO TERMINATE TENANCY
The 60-day notice of termination requirement for month-to-month tenancies will be repealed at the end of this year. Effective January 1, 2006, residential landlords and property managers may give a 30-day Notice to Terminate to their month-to-month tenants (unless rent control or subsidized housing rules apply.

The 60-day rule was originally enacted in 2002 as a pilot project to help tenants who purportedly needed more time than the allotted 30 days to make new housing arrangements in a tight rental market. However, others said that length of time is too long for evicting problematic tenants. Many landlords and property managers prefer using a general 30-day notice to terminate, rather than the alternative 3-day notice to perform covenant or quit which may require litigation of issues such as noise, nuisances, or illegal activities by the tenant. Waiting 60 days rather than 30 days under those circumstances places an undue burden on landlords, property managers, and other tenants in the building. Please be sure to visit our Del Mar Encinitas real estate site. Also, a new site we are developing is: San Diego dentist Be sure to have a look.

Guess What - Real Estate to Remain Strong. Really?

2005-10-20T23:47:00.000-07:00

With the demand for housing continuing to increase, U.S. home sales are expected to reach record levels by the end of 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors most recent forecast. Existing home sales in the U.S. are anticipated to rise 4.2 percent to 7.07 million units, while new home sales should reach 1.29 million units, a 7.1 percent increase from 2004. Additionally, total housing starts are expected to reach the highest level recorded since 1973 with a total of 2.04 million units. The added demand for housing stemming from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has pushed NAR's sales forecast even higher, according to the report."Short-term momentum is very strong, and our Pending Home Sales Index just set a record," said NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. "In addition to the housing needs of hurricane victims, we may be seeing some 'fence jumping' from homebuyers who are getting into the market before interests rates increase. Please visit our Del Mar real estate site.

Changes to Real Estate Tax Right-offs?

2005-10-17T23:11:00.000-07:00

Last week, the President’s Advisory Panel on Tax Reform informally agreed that tax law should limit the home mortgage interest deduction to the interest paid on the first $300,000 or $350,000 of a mortgage. This is especially significant here in San Diego where mortgages are generally larger and where State lawmakers may follow any new Fed changes with new state taxes. The panel will issue its final recommendations on November 1. The panel is suggesting a transition period during which current homeowners could take advantage of laws as they existed when they bought their homes. Be sure to visit: San Diego real estate website, my San Diego for Sale by Owner real estate site and the new San Diego cosmetic surgery doctors directory.

Rates hit Six Month High!

2005-10-14T16:11:00.000-07:00

(October 14, 2005) -- Freddie Mac reports a jump in the 30-year home loan rate to 6.03 percent from 5.98 percent during the past week, marking a six-month high. The one-year adjustable mortgage rate rose as well, climbing to a more than three-year high of 4.85 percent from 4.77 percent last week. Mortgage rates will continue to move upward due to soaring energy prices and concerns about inflation, making it more difficult for first-time buyers to achieve homeownership and less rewarding for adjustable-rate borrowers to switch to fixed-rate products. Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft believes the 30-year mortgage rate will hit 6.4 percent next year.

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Bush sells Louisiana to France

2005-10-14T15:06:00.000-07:00

President Bush and a giddy Jacques Chirac shake hands on the deal

BATON ROUGE, LA. - The White House announced today that President Bush has successfully sold the state of Louisiana back to the French at more than double its original selling price of $11,250,000.

"This is a bold step forward for America," said Bush. "And America will be stronger and better as a result. I stand here today in unity with French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac, who was so kind to accept my offer of Louisiana in exchange for 25 million dollars cash."

The state, ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild.

"Jack understands full well that this one's a 'fixer upper,'" said Bush. "He and the French people are quite prepared to pump out all that water, and make Louisiana a decent place to live again. And they've got a lot of work to do. But Jack's assured me, if it's not right, they're going to fix it."

The move has been met with incredulity from the beleaguered residents of Louisiana.

"Shuba-pie!" said New Orleans resident Willis Babineaux.

"Frafer-perly yum kom drabby sham!"

However, President Bush's decision has been widely lauded by Republicans.

"This is an unexpected but brilliant move by the President," said Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. "Instead of spending billions and billions, and billions of dollars rebuilding the state of Louisiana, we've just made 25 million dollars in pure profit.

""This is indeed a smart move," commented Fox News analyst Brit Hume. "Not only have we stopped the flooding in our own budget, we've made money on the deal. Plus, when the god-awful French are done fixing it up, we can easily invade and take it back again."

The money gained from "'The Louisiana Refund' is expected to be immediately pumped into the rebuilding of Iraq. .

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Interest Rates Moving Up!

2005-10-10T10:46:00.000-07:00

Prime is currently at 6.75%. Here’s how the Prime Rate has moved in the last five years:

So, rates are going up, gas is up, heating oil is up....real estate sales are moving DOWN!

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Seniors & High Mortgage Debt

2005-10-06T07:37:00.000-07:00

Seniors are increasingly reliant on housing wealth as a source of retirement savings, leading to a growing number of "house rich, income poor" households, according to a recent study by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. After a decade of rising home values, residential real estate now represents the largest single asset class owned by seniors, while only 21.1 percent of households headed by individuals aged 65 and older own publicly traded stocks.Though homeownership boosts seniors' wealth accumulations, many retired people face unmanageable mortgage debt. Nearly 27 percent of seniors have not paid off their mortgages, and mortgage debt accounted for 70 percent of the total debt for homeowners aged 65 and older. According to the Center's study, seniors should take precautions when relying heavily on home equity for their retirement savings.

One solution is to develop new financial instruments, such as equity partners that purchase a share of the future interest in a home, to help seniors overcome financial burdens during retirement, according to the report.

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Real Estate - Refinance Point Tax Saving Possible!

2005-10-03T10:53:00.000-07:00

In a recent case brought before the United States Tax Court (Hurley 2005-125), the court ruled that the points paid for refinancing a property were tax deductible due to certain criteria being met by the Hurley’s. The case was brought to the Tax Court with the argument that the points paid for the home loan allowed the Hurley’s to obtain a lower rate, which resulted in a lower home loan payment. The monthly payment savings were in turn used for improvements to the property, including a new roof, carpet, and other repairs. Being that the Hurley’s provided documented proof of the improvements, the court ruled in their favor and allowed the points to be deducted from the Hurley’s taxes…all in the year the loan was refinanced.It is important to note that if you pay points to refinance a personal property, the points are only tax deductible if the refinance creates a lower home loan payment and the savings will be used for improvements to the property; or if the refinance transaction is being done to purchase an additional property. And as always, consult your mortgage and tax professional regarding your own specific situation to ensure that you meet the criteria needed for a deduction of this type.

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Real Estate - Interest Rates Move Up!

2005-09-26T10:57:00.000-07:00

READY…SET…HIKE! Fed Day came and went without much fanfare. Chairman Greenspan and his inflation-fighting friends at the Fed decided to hike up the Fed Funds Rate by another .25%, although the decision was not unanimous. More importantly, the commentary was fairly tame with no shockers for the market to absorb. Greenspan said that although the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina will be highly costly and inflationary, the long-term look at the economy shows that inflation is still “contained”. Sounds like you can bank on a few more hikes before Uncle Al turns over the keys to his successor…likely to be Fed Governor Ben Bernanke.
Although Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates had a bit of improvement early in the week, Friday saw them worsen right back to where they started as China announced they would allow further floating of their currency, the Yuan, against the US Dollar. Why? A few months back, China announced that they would no longer peg the Yuan to the US Dollar, and would instead allow it to float within a “limited range”. The breaking news that China will allow the Yuan to float even further from the Dollar means that China does not have to purchase as many US denominated securities – like Bonds – to keep the US Dollar at higher levels, which would in turn keep the Chinese Yuan stronger. Less buying is always bad news for prices…so Bonds and home loan rates took a turn for the worse on the news.
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EZ Money

2005-09-23T13:47:00.000-07:00

A Federal Reserve Survey found that non-traditional mortgages now account for “more than a quarter of new business at a third of the nation's largest home lenders.” Picture the economy and the housing market in two years. If you think it will be as good or better than we’ve seen in the last 3 years, you have taken the term “optimist” to a new level. Be sure to visit our free San Diego for sale by owner real estate site. Post text and photos for 90 days for Free!

San Diego Real Estate - The run is OVER!

2005-09-22T10:04:00.000-07:00

California Association of Realtors predicts ....
The rate of home price appreciation will moderate next year following four years of steep increases, while sales in 2006 will decline slightly from this year's record pace, according to C.A.R.'s "2006 Housing Market Forecast" released today. The forecast was presented during the C.A.R. Centennial REALTOR® EXPO, running from Sept. 20 - 22 at the San Diego Convention Center.The median home price in California will increase 10 percent to $575,500 in 2006 compared with a projected median of $523,150 this year, while sales for 2006 are projected to reach 630,610 units, falling 2 percent compared with 2005. The double-digit gain in the median price of a home, which California has experienced for most of the past five years, will again be fueled by the continuing shortage of housing across much of the state, according to C.A.R. economists. California typically gains nearly 250,000 new households, yet only will build about 200,000 new housing units this year, creating a shortfall of about 50,000 units."The economic fundamentals at both the state and national level continue to support a strong housing market in the Golden State for the foreseeable future," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "However, we also expect that the wave of new loan products that have flooded the market over the past several years have injected a higher level of risk into the market, while affordability barriers to homeownership will continue to push residents inland and even out of state."
The above is the official industry line. My take is California real estate is on the verge of a 20 to 40% DROP IN VALUE! For the best in San Diego real estate websites, please visit: San Diego real estate - San Diego downtown condos - Costal Del Mar La Jolla real estate - San Diego for sale by owner. Also, for any legal assistance, visit San Diego attorneys Directory. Another new San Diego site is all about web site awards. Add a little prestige & additional creditability to your web site ( if it qualifies) with one of these excellent web awards. Their newest is a very cool blog award. Visit the site at: www.web-site-award-winning.com

EZ Money - Hard Times Sure to Follow

2005-09-20T09:28:00.000-07:00

A Federal Reserve Survey found that non-traditional mortgages now account for “more than a quarter of new business at a third of the nation's largest home lenders.” Picture the economy and the housing market in two years. If you think it will be as good or better than we’ve seen in the last 3 years, you have taken the term “optimist” to a new level.
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