Wednesday, April 05, 2006
lenders believe a housing bubble
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--About two-thirds of lenders believe a housing bubble exists in the U.S., and half think it has begun to burst or will blow up in the next six months, according to a new survey.A Phoenix Management report, released Tuesday, found 66% of the 92 lenders who took part in the survey believe the country is currently in a housing bubble, up from 46% a year ago."In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from Loch Ness monster myth status to an economic reality that could have a significant economic impact on the lives of many Americans," said Michael Jacoby, managing director and shareholder of Phoenix Management, an advisory firm that provides turnaround, crisis and interim management and investment banking services.When asked when the bubble might burst, 77% said they believed it would happen within the next 12 months: 30% believe the bubble is already starting to blow up, 20% predict it will happen in the next one to six months, and 27% forecast it in seven to 12 months.If a housing correction occurs, 50% of respondents said they believe prices would decline up to 10%, 43% expect a 20% price decline, and 7% see prices falling up to 30%.The survey found 30% of lenders believe the Northeast region would be hit hardest by a housing correction while 27% believe the West would be affected most.
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