Home prices could start falling

USATODAY.com - Home prices could start falling: "Home prices could start falling

By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday after a report showed that sales of existing homes fell in June and the number of homes for sale soared to their highest point since 1997.

Condo prices are already being hit: They fell 2.1% from June last year to a median $226,900 (median means half cost less and half cost more). Prices of single-family homes edged up 1.1% in June to $231,500. With a 6.8-month supply of single-family homes on the market and an eight-month supply of condos, sellers are under more pressure to cut prices, and buyers can be choosy.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expects 'price numbers to start deteriorating,' though he still projects home prices will be up 5.3% for the year. "

San Diego Home Prices Fall!

For June '06, the median home price in San Diego fell for the first time in nearly a decade and sales tumbled in Los Angeles County, according to just released real estate figures.

The median price of all homes sold in San Diego last month fell 1% from the same month last year to $488,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

The importance of this, is that the traditionally strongest real estate marketing time is from May through August. For a price drop to occur now,
can only be a harbinger of a much more pronounced drop as we enter into Fall/Winter.

I'm not selling my San Diego home, but have sold all my investment properties.

If one considers the BILLIONS in adjustable loans due for their first adjustment in 2007/8 combined with the huge percentage of 100%loans used to purchase at the height of our market....you have to worry!

But, than again what is so bad about a 20-30% decline in values if we are coming off 100% increase over the last five years?

I'll answer my own question....nothing so bad as long as you were not speculating, purchased beyond your means or refinanced you property at 90% or more of its high value.
Newer real estate sites: La Jolla real estate -Del Mar real
estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

San Diego County home prices take a tumble

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Business -- San Diego County home prices take a tumble: "By Roger M. Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
11:45 a.m. June 13, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County's home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.
Snapshot: Home/condo sales May '05– May '06


Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis, reaching 4,217 transactions in new and existing homes and condos.
Local real estate agents reported about seven months' worth of unsold inventory, but argued that the pace of activity reflects a normal market rather than a crash. "

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch: "Growing evidence of real-estate 'bust'
Fallout for consumers and corporate profits, eonomist says
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:47 AM ET Jun 29, 2006


HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Evidence is mounting that the global property cycle is turning down, as rising interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures combine to put the brakes on demand for real estate, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
The shift ushers in an end to what's been a six-year rally during which the twin forces of globalization and financial innovation fed an upturn in the property cycle that became a worldwide phenomenon, said economist Andy Xie, in an Asia Pacific strategy report released Thursday.
'Due to deflation shocks, global inflation has been low, which allowed major central banks to keep interest rates very low, in turn fueling property,' Xie said. 'As inflation picks up simultaneously around the world, interest rates are rising everywhere, and the property boom is turning into a bust.' "

Interest Rate Up - Equity Down!

Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future? - NationalRealtyNews.com: "Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future?
Thursday, June 22, 2006 - By Staff Writer, National Realty News

STUART, FL - Many borrowers who mortgaged their homes with adjustable rate mortgages while rates were at historic lows will soon be in store for a payment shock and the economy overall will certainly feel the effects. Some experts say prepare for a rise in delinquency rates and foreclosures.

Bankrate.com reports that over the next 18 months, more than $1 trillion of adjustable-rate mortgages will be hitting their first reset date. Assuming the average loan amount is $200,000, that amounts to 500,000 mortgages. The typical homeowner will be forced to seriously readjust their monthly budget when they go from paying on an interest only loan or a loan with a low starting rate to one that now requires playing catch up on the principal. Many borrowers will simply not be prepared for a sudden change that may require them to pay double more than they paid the previous month for their mortgage. Industry experts say this will fuel another year of increases in mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures.

The effects will be evident in the economy overall, as well. That consumer who is suddenly paying more for their mortgage - and who is already feeling the heat due to high fuel prices - is most likely forced to cut back on spending money elsewhere - especially for consumer products and services. "
Newer real estate sites: La Jolla real estate -Del Mar real
estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

BUILDER CONFIDENCE Takes a BIG Drop

The confidence level of the nation's home builders continues to decline in 2006, falling this month to its lowest reading since April 1995, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 42, down four points from May's revised reading of 46. An HMI above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good versus poor. According to NAHB, declining demand from investors, rising mortgage interest rates, and continued affordability issues all contributed to the decrease in builders' outlook for the new home market.

All three HMI components declined in June. The component measuring sales expectations declined five points to 50, while the components gauging current single-family sales and buyer traffic decreased to 47 and 29, respectively. Home builder confidence edged down across the nation in June, and in the West builder confidence declined one point to a seasonally adjusted HMI of 61.
Newer real estate sites: La Jolla real estate -Del Mar real
estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

Smart money is leaving the real estate market

Rockford's Newspaper Rock River Times | rockford illinois news information: "Dr. Christopher Thornberg, a member of the forecast staff, told a blog called The Housing Panic: “Actually, what we are seeing is a very typical slowdown in the market so far—there is nothing particularly soft about it (the landing in bubble markets). The claim is that because unit sales are falling but prices are still going up, that this is an unusual slowing. The fact is that most breaking markets start with activity, and it takes three to four quarters for that to take all the wind out of price appreciation. How hard it will be, remains to be seen.”"
Newer real estate sites: La Jolla real estate -Del Mar real
estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate