San Diego real estate investors . . . ‘Know when to fold them’
By Bob Schwartz, CRS, GRI ©2006 www.brokerforyou.com All rights reserved.
The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.233 million units last month.
More importantly, this is the second time in three months that housing sales have dropped! This 5 percent drop was under the 7 percent November drop.
Another important fact that this report showed was a 5.2 month supply of new homes in January. This is up 2.5 percent from the December ’05 figures and an astounding 20 percent from the same figures one year ago (January ’05)!
AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
New Home Buyer are Backing Out!
Read the excerpt below as another major news organization reports the FACTS! …..
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writerFebruary 24, 2006: 2:49 PM ESTNEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Home builders are growing concerned about an increasing number of cancelled new home orders, which experts say could be a sign of an underlying weakness in the recent run in home prices.
Specifically, the cancelled orders could be the latest warning sign that buyers who were turning to real estate as an investment, rather than for their own housing needs, are shifting out of real estate. And that could mean that in many hot markets, the air is about to come out of over-inflated real home prices overall.
AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writerFebruary 24, 2006: 2:49 PM ESTNEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Home builders are growing concerned about an increasing number of cancelled new home orders, which experts say could be a sign of an underlying weakness in the recent run in home prices.
Specifically, the cancelled orders could be the latest warning sign that buyers who were turning to real estate as an investment, rather than for their own housing needs, are shifting out of real estate. And that could mean that in many hot markets, the air is about to come out of over-inflated real home prices overall.
AbOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker with. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego lawyers. You can contact Bob via his highly popular San Diego real estate website.---This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at seo711@gamil.com
Friday, February 17, 2006
San Diego Home Sales Plunge!
Biggest San Diego Home Sales Plunge!
San Diego home sales took the largest drop ever recorded in January 2006! Sales were off 31% from December 2005! This was the lowest monthly sales since January 1998, when these records were first tracked!
From January 2005 the loss was 26.8%, and marked the seventh month in a row where home sales were lower than the year before.
Also, the sales price to list price ratio for single-family homes has also continued to fall.
For well over 18 months now I’ve been predicting a deflation cycle in San Diego. Now as the hard facts are actually showing up the ‘industry’ has changed stragerty from pooh-poohing the coming fall to now predicting a ‘short term softening’ of our market.
Believe what you will, but after a ten year spectular ride up, with the last five years actually doubling most home values, do you really believe the down side will be over in a few months? Our last down cycle in San Diego ran from approximately 1990 to 1995.
My prediction for San Diego real estate is that the downward cycle has only begun. Be sure to fasten your seatbelt.
San Diego home sales took the largest drop ever recorded in January 2006! Sales were off 31% from December 2005! This was the lowest monthly sales since January 1998, when these records were first tracked!
From January 2005 the loss was 26.8%, and marked the seventh month in a row where home sales were lower than the year before.
Also, the sales price to list price ratio for single-family homes has also continued to fall.
For well over 18 months now I’ve been predicting a deflation cycle in San Diego. Now as the hard facts are actually showing up the ‘industry’ has changed stragerty from pooh-poohing the coming fall to now predicting a ‘short term softening’ of our market.
Believe what you will, but after a ten year spectular ride up, with the last five years actually doubling most home values, do you really believe the down side will be over in a few months? Our last down cycle in San Diego ran from approximately 1990 to 1995.
My prediction for San Diego real estate is that the downward cycle has only begun. Be sure to fasten your seatbelt.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Pending Home Sales Index Down
Wednesday, February 01, 2006WASHINGTON,D.C. – Pending home sales continue to according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in December, was down 3.0 percent to a level of 116.4 from 120.0 in November, and is 5.5 percent below December 2004. Pending sales have trended steadily down from a record index of 129.2 last AugustThe index in the West fell 8.1 percent to 117.1 in December and was 11.8 percent lower than a year ago.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker You can contact Bob via e-mail at bob@brokerforyou.com or visit his highly popular San Diego real estate website. -
This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at bob@websitetrafficbuilders.com
The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in December, was down 3.0 percent to a level of 116.4 from 120.0 in November, and is 5.5 percent below December 2004. Pending sales have trended steadily down from a record index of 129.2 last AugustThe index in the West fell 8.1 percent to 117.1 in December and was 11.8 percent lower than a year ago.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, and a CA licensed San Diego real estate broker You can contact Bob via e-mail at bob@brokerforyou.com or visit his highly popular San Diego real estate website. -
This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at bob@websitetrafficbuilders.com
Monday, January 02, 2006
San Diego Housing Market Heads South
San Diego Housing Market Heads South
Bob Schwartz, CRS, GRI ©2005 www.brokerforyou.com All rights reserved.Nothing down, variable interest rate, EZ qualification, stated income.These are the common lending terms that many believe have kept our super-heated market going. As the stories of fast home appreciation proliferate, the desire to get into our local housing market by those who hesitated in the past, have escalated.This is typical of any bull market, be it the stock or housing market.
The paradigm changes this time. There is a huge increase in zero down and adjustable rate loans being pushed on poor credit risk borrowers and first time buyers (below market start/qualifying), as well as move up buyers being induced to purchase homes that otherwise are far beyond normal qualifying loan guidelines!The majority of the new adjustable loans have artificially low start rates for the first year or two, interest only payment terms, and are indexed to volatile interest rate indexes. This is setting the stage for a huge decline in home values.
One local major lender recently stated that they had no fixed rate purchase loans in process; all their new purchase loans were adjustable! Further, over 50% of their new purchase loans were zero down! Combine this with the popular 'stated income' loans and it's easy to see how these policies have kept our market propped up. (A stated income loan basically means if the buyer has good credit, the amount of their stated income is NOT verified for qualification purposes.)
While a huge housing value decline seems unnatural to many, this phenomenon was last seen locally in the mid-90's! At that time, an approximate 20% housing depreciation took many by surprise. The easy loan practices today, the double digit housing appreciation of the past few years, and irrational enthusiasm, clearly signals another approaching decline in the San Diego housing market!
How bad could such a decline be? A number of local lenders state that the majority of their loans for the past few years were zero down, adjustable loans. With the slow but steady rise in interest rates, San Diego real estate could be facing a decline in housing values that could dim the 20% decline of the mid-90's!By any measure, our local San Diego real estate market is more at risk than any time in recent memory.
Though housing bubbles may last far beyond anyone's expectations, now may well be a time to reconsider any new purchase. Purchasing one's first home is not something one should try to time or tie into projections on the local housing trend. Just be cautious! Stay well within your normal qualification ratios. Except under certain conditions, avoid E/Z qualification and adjustable, zero down loans. Start out modestly with a smaller home or condominium that you can easily afford.
No one can predict the future trend of any major market with certainty. However, caution is advised in San Diego housing as the multitude sing the siren song of never ending double digit housing appreciation.
ABOUT THE AUTHORBob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, CA licensed real estate broker with www.Brokerforyou.com. Bob has over 27 years of residential real estate experience, authored a number of published articles and served as an expert witness for San Diego legal firms. You can contact Bob via e-mail at bob@brokerforyou.com or visit his highly popular San Diego real estate website at: http://www.brokerforyou.com
This work is protected under copyright and may not be published in other works without express written permission from Promotions Unlimited or the following procedures are implemented: Please feel free to publish this article (as long as no changes are made (all hyper-links to remain and not be modified in any way) and the author's name and site URL's are retained) in your ezine, newsletter, offline publication or website. A copy would be appreciated at bob@websitetrafficbuilders.com
Saturday, October 22, 2005
Tenant 60 notice is out in 2006
California Tenants - NO MORE 60-DAY NOTICE TO TERMINATE TENANCY
The 60-day notice of termination requirement for month-to-month tenancies will be repealed at the end of this year. Effective January 1, 2006, residential landlords and property managers may give a 30-day Notice to Terminate to their month-to-month tenants (unless rent control or subsidized housing rules apply.
The 60-day rule was originally enacted in 2002 as a pilot project to help tenants who purportedly needed more time than the allotted 30 days to make new housing arrangements in a tight rental market. However, others said that length of time is too long for evicting problematic tenants. Many landlords and property managers prefer using a general 30-day notice to terminate, rather than the alternative 3-day notice to perform covenant or quit which may require litigation of issues such as noise, nuisances, or illegal activities by the tenant. Waiting 60 days rather than 30 days under those circumstances places an undue burden on landlords, property managers, and other tenants in the building. Please be sure to visit our Del Mar Encinitas real estate site. Also, a new site we are developing is: San Diego dentist Be sure to have a look.
The 60-day notice of termination requirement for month-to-month tenancies will be repealed at the end of this year. Effective January 1, 2006, residential landlords and property managers may give a 30-day Notice to Terminate to their month-to-month tenants (unless rent control or subsidized housing rules apply.
The 60-day rule was originally enacted in 2002 as a pilot project to help tenants who purportedly needed more time than the allotted 30 days to make new housing arrangements in a tight rental market. However, others said that length of time is too long for evicting problematic tenants. Many landlords and property managers prefer using a general 30-day notice to terminate, rather than the alternative 3-day notice to perform covenant or quit which may require litigation of issues such as noise, nuisances, or illegal activities by the tenant. Waiting 60 days rather than 30 days under those circumstances places an undue burden on landlords, property managers, and other tenants in the building. Please be sure to visit our Del Mar Encinitas real estate site. Also, a new site we are developing is: San Diego dentist Be sure to have a look.
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Guess What - Real Estate to Remain Strong. Really?
With the demand for housing continuing to increase, U.S. home sales are expected to reach record levels by the end of 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors most recent forecast. Existing home sales in the U.S. are anticipated to rise 4.2 percent to 7.07 million units, while new home sales should reach 1.29 million units, a 7.1 percent increase from 2004. Additionally, total housing starts are expected to reach the highest level recorded since 1973 with a total of 2.04 million units. The added demand for housing stemming from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has pushed NAR's sales forecast even higher, according to the report."Short-term momentum is very strong, and our Pending Home Sales Index just set a record," said NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. "In addition to the housing needs of hurricane victims, we may be seeing some 'fence jumping' from homebuyers who are getting into the market before interests rates increase. Please visit our Del Mar real estate site.
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